Can Democrats turn Georgia blue?
via AP

Can Democrats turn Georgia blue?

#DemsCanWinGeorgia
#DreamOnDems
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If Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams wins her race in November, she will become the first black woman elected governor in America. Democrats are thrilled at the prospect of winning the governor's office in Georgia. If they can win in Alabama, Georgia should be easy. But skeptics argue a win in Georgia will be no easy task, and it will take more than enthusiasm to turn the Peach State blue. What do you think? 🍑

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#DemsCanWinGeorgia
#DreamOnDems

Stacey Abrams could make history by becoming the first black woman governor in America, but she's got an incredibly difficult road ahead. Perry Bacon Jr. of FiveThirtyEight breaks down what Abrams has to do to turn Georgia blue.

  1. Win 90 percent of the nonwhite vote.
  2. Make sure nonwhites are 40 percent of the electorate through intense get-out-the-vote efforts.
  3. Win 25 percent of the white vote.

While it's certainly plausible, Abrams will have to turn out an unprecedented number of nonwhite voters as well as nonwhite liberals. Georgia hasn't had a Democratic governor in 15 years. It's not unthinkable, it's just highly unlikely.

But as Sharon Austin points out in The Conversation, Georgia has been trending in the right direction.

Early Democratic primary turnout results indicate that the Democratic turnout is higher in this year’s primary than the primaries of four years ago. In 2014 and 2016, Republican turnout averaged about 61 percent and Democrats about 37 percent in early and absentee votes. This year the Republican turnout rate decreased to 53 percent while Democratic turnout increased to 46 percent.
Black voters can make or break Abrams’ victory. Their numbers have grown steadily over the last few decades. For example, in 1990, 27 percent of the state’s population was African-American. That percentage grew to 32 percent in 2016.

If Abrams can motivate black voters, and particularly black women, to come out in droves, she will absolutely win the election. Doug Jones is a white man and he made it happen in Alabama. There's no reason to believe Abrams is a lost cause, she can absolutely turn Georgia blue.

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